Presidential Poll Meta-Tracker Update Oct 17: Shift to Biden but lower projected EV final count for him

Below is the latest update to my US Presidential poll meta-tracker. It updates my earlier posts from Oct 5, Sept 27 and Sept 8. The methodology is explained in earlier posts.

Since October 5th, the following shifts are evident:

• Ohio (18EV), although still a swing state, has shifted to be more likely a Republican win than a Democrat win.
• Wisconsin (!0EV) has shifted out of swing state status, in favor of the Democrats.
• A total of 11 state projections for the Democrats have shifted (more) towards the Democrats. These are shown as white text on blue background. But only 5 of these are in swing states (where it matters).
• A total of 2 state projections that are projecting Democrats to win have shifted towards the Republicans (Red text on blue background). Both of these are in swing state Florida (29EV).
• A total of 2 state projections have moved from Republican-expected to toss-up status (hence showing a shift towards the Democrats). Shown as blue text on white background. These are in Iowa (6EV) and Texas (38EV).
• A total of 2 state projections have moved from Democrat-expected to toss-up status (hence showing a shift towards the Republicans). Shown as red text on white background. These are in swing state Georgia (16EV) and non-swing state Minnesota (10EV).
• A total of 2 state projections that are projecting Republicans to win have shifted towards the Democrats (Blue text on red background). Neither of these are in swing states.
• A total of 9 state projections for the Republicans have shifted (more) towards the Republicans. These are shown as white text on red background.
• Overall the meta-projection shows Joe Biden now confidently getting over the 270 threshold (with 279 confident EVs), wheras there were only 269 confident EVs before. However, the likely projected EVs for biden is now 350, whereas it was 368 before.
• The model now in green shows four swing states where Biden has an advantage (five before), but still has to fight for: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. He doesn't need to win any of these to win the election if the confident states all fall in his favour, but winning any of these would reduce his risk.
• Donald Trump, on the other hand, has the advantage in three swing states marked in yellow (Iowa, Texas and Ohio). He has to win all of these. He also has to win all the four swing states where Joe Biden has an advantage as above, and one of the states where the pollsters are confident in a Biden win (most likely one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan).

Net result: An overall shift in win probability towards Joe Biden, even though Biden's projected final EV count has shrunk by 18 EV.

One final point: Will the results be known or projectable on Election night? Most likely yes. There are a few states where late mail-in ballots will be accepted (postmarked up to election day, meaning they may not be counted for a week or two, delaying projections if counts are close and the number of such ballots are high). Some of these are in very confident Democrat states, so we shouldn't consider those. We only need to consider the states that are either swing states or at least somewhat competitive. These are the following:

• Nevada: 6EV, Very Likely Democrat. If we subtract this from the 279 confident EVs for Biden, we still have 273EVs, and hence a clear win for Biden.
• Virginia: 13 EV. Likely Democrat.
• Minnesota: 10 EV. Likely Democrat.
• North Carolina: 15EV Swing trending Democrat
• Georgia: 15EV Swing  leaning Democrat
• Iowa: 6EV Swing leaning Republican but that has moved towards the Democrats slightly
• Texas: 38EV Swing leaning Republican
• Ohio: 18EV Swing trending Republican

Given the margins, we have to consider the 29EV from Virginia, Minnesota and Nevada. If there are no projections from them due to late mail, that would bring the projectable number of EV wins for Biden down from 279 to 250. But Florida (29EV) could make the election a clear win for Biden on election night if it goes his way as could Arizona plus some other late-mail state that has a high-enough margin or low-enough number of delayed votes. Also, it is unlikely that all the 'late mail' states will be unprojectable, given the high number of people voting in advance.