Friday, July 17, 2020

Covid-19 Data July 17th Expanded From the Wordometers Site

As I have done several times earlier in this pandemic, below is some additional number crunching of the data. The raw source of the data is the Wordometers website. I am reporting this July 17th for July 16th data.

In all the following, I am going to only consider the 90 countries that have at least 10 million people. Smaller countries (often islands) are more likely to be outliers.

In all the following I have coloured Canada and USA yellow, as points of reference, and have also used colours to distinguish Latin America (orange), Middle East and North Africa (green), Europe (pink), Sub-Saharan Africa (blue), Southern and Eastern Asia (purple)

The three rankings I want to highlight are the following, which are not shown in the Wordometers site directly.

The first is New Deaths Per Million. This gives a sense of the recent past spread, and the state of crisis in the country currently. The top 6 such countries are in Latin America. Death rates may be somewhat inaccurate since in some places not all deaths are recorded as being Covid-caused.

The USA is 9th, and Canada is 25th, doing almost 6 times better than the USA and 12 times better than Brazil. Notable European countries are Russia, Sweden, Romania and the UK

RankCountryNewDeathsPerM
1Brazil6.1
2Peru6.0
3Chile5.4
4Mexico4.5
5Colombia4.2
6Bolivia3.8
7South Africa3.6
8Guatemala3.0
9USA2.9
10Ecuador2.8
11Iran2.4
12Iraq2.2
13Argentina1.4
14Saudi Arabia1.3
15Russia1.1
16Dominican Republic1.1
17Sweden1.0
18Romania1.0
19UK1.0
20Azerbaijan0.8
21Cameroon0.5
22Egypt0.5
23India0.5
24Afghanistan0.5
25Canada0.5
26Malawi0.4
27Ukraine0.4
28Madagascar0.4
29Belgium0.3
30Italy0.3
31Portugal0.3
32Poland0.3
33Indonesia0.3
34France0.3
35Algeria0.3
36Philippines0.3
37Turkey0.2
38Bangladesh0.2
39Zimbabwe0.2
40Pakistan0.2
41Senegal0.2
42Haiti0.2
43Yemen0.2
44Benin0.2
45Kenya0.1
46Venezuela0.1
47Uzbekistan0.1
48Morocco0.1
49Germany0.1
50Australia0.1
51Guinea0.1
52Spain0.1
53Netherlands0.1
54Nigeria0.0
55S. Korea0.0
56Angola0.0
57Ethiopia0.0
58DRC0.0
59Japan0.0
60Kazakhstan0.0
61Ghana0.0
62Czechia0.0
63Zambia0.0
64Nepal0.0
65Ivory Coast0.0
66Rwanda0.0
67Burundi0.0
68Greece0.0
69Mozambique0.0
70South Sudan0.0
71Somalia0.0
72Syria0.0
73Sri Lanka0.0
74Tunisia0.0
75Jordan0.0
76Mali0.0
77Cuba0.0
78Uganda0.0
79Malaysia0.0
80Niger0.0
81Chad0.0
82Cambodia0.0
83Thailand0.0
84Taiwan0.0
85Myanmar0.0
86China0.0
87Sudan0.0
88Burkina Faso0.0
89Tanzania0.0
90Vietnam0.0

The second is New Deaths / Total Deaths so far. This gives a clue as to the recency of the pandemic. Low numbers here suggest that the worst was much earlier.

In this analysis Africa is doing the worst. It doesn't bode well for the coming period in that continent. Canada is 49th in this ranking, with the USA ranked only slightly higher but Canada is doing 3 times better

RankCountryNewDeaths/TotDeaths
1Madagascar18.87
2Malawi15.69
3Zimbabwe13.04
4Benin7.14
5Uzbekistan5.33
6South Africa4.63
7Guatemala3.85
8Venezuela3.85
9Cameroon3.75
10Kenya3.69
11Angola3.57
12Colombia3.57
13Argentina2.94
14India2.66
15Guinea2.56
16Iraq2.56
17Azerbaijan2.40
18Bolivia2.27
19Indonesia1.96
20Senegal1.92
21Saudi Arabia1.90
22Australia1.77
23Philippines1.77
24Afghanistan1.71
25Brazil1.69
26Peru1.57
27Mexico1.57
28Bangladesh1.56
29Morocco1.52
30Iran1.46
31Chile1.43
32Russia1.40
33Haiti1.38
34Ethiopia1.35
35Egypt1.29
36Dominican Republic1.28
37Ukraine1.25
38Nigeria1.17
39Yemen1.14
40Algeria1.14
41Romania0.96
42Ecuador0.94
43Pakistan0.74
44S. Korea0.69
45Poland0.69
46USA0.68
47DRC0.52
48Turkey0.39
49Canada0.19
50Sweden0.18
51Portugal0.18
52UK0.15
53Japan0.10
54Germany0.10
55France0.06
56Italy0.06
57Belgium0.04
58Netherlands0.02
59Spain0.01
60Kazakhstan0.00
61Ghana0.00
62Czechia0.00
63Zambia0.00
64Nepal0.00
65Ivory Coast0.00
66Rwanda0.00
67Burundi0.00
68Greece0.00
69Mozambique0.00
70South Sudan0.00
71Somalia0.00
72Syria0.00
73Sri Lanka0.00
74Tunisia0.00
75Jordan0.00
76Mali0.00
77Cuba0.00
78Malaysia0.00
79Niger0.00
80Chad0.00
81Thailand0.00
82Taiwan0.00
83Myanmar0.00
84China0.00
85Sudan0.00
86Burkina Faso0.00
87Tanzania0.00
88Uganda 
89Cambodia 
90Vietnam 

The third ranking is new cases per million. This gives a sense of how bad things are getting currently and bodes badly for the next few weeks in terms of potential deaths. Top countries should clearly be locking down more. This data may be inaccurate due to different testing rates.

Here South Africa does worse followed closely by the USA. Then come a group of Latin-American countries. Canada is 36th, doing 19 times better than the USA.

RankCountryNewCasesPerM
1South Africa222.0
2USA221.7
3Brazil206.1
4Colombia157.9
5Chile130.4
6Peru117.1
7Bolivia115.7
8Dominican Republic98.8
9Kazakhstan89.1
10Argentina80.4
11Saudi Arabia79.3
12Ecuador58.7
13Iraq56.7
14Azerbaijan48.6
15Guatemala48.2
16Mexico47.7
17Russia44.0
18Romania40.4
19Cameroon37.0
20Portugal33.3
21Iran29.7
22Spain29.1
23India25.7
24Ghana22.4
25Philippines21.8
26Ukraine19.4
27Zimbabwe18.4
28Madagascar17.5
29Bangladesh16.6
30Venezuela15.0
31Uzbekistan14.5
32Belgium14.4
33Algeria13.3
34Czechia12.8
35Australia12.7
36Canada11.5
37Sweden11.4
38Turkey11.1
39Pakistan9.7
40UK9.4
41Egypt9.1
42Poland8.8
43France8.2
44Kenya7.8
45Morocco7.7
46Benin7.0
47Germany7.0
48Senegal6.7
49Zambia6.5
50Guinea6.3
51Haiti6.2
52Netherlands5.8
53Indonesia5.8
54Nepal5.7
55Ivory Coast5.7
56Malawi5.1
57Italy3.8
58Japan3.0
59Rwanda2.9
60Nigeria2.9
61Burundi2.9
62Greece2.8
63Ethiopia2.6
64Afghanistan2.0
65Mozambique1.7
66South Sudan1.6
67Somalia1.4
68S. Korea1.2
69Syria1.1
70Angola0.9
71Yemen0.9
72Sri Lanka0.7
73Tunisia0.7
74Jordan0.5
75DRC0.4
76Mali0.3
77Cuba0.2
78Uganda0.2
79Malaysia0.1
80Niger0.1
81Chad0.1
82Cambodia0.1
83Thailand0.1
84Taiwan0.0
85Myanmar0.0
86China0.0
87Sudan0.0
88Burkina Faso0.0
89Tanzania0.0
90Vietnam0.0