Saturday, October 17, 2020

Presidential Poll Meta-Tracker Update Oct 17: Shift to Biden but lower projected EV final count for him

Below is the latest update to my US Presidential poll meta-tracker. It updates my earlier posts from Oct 5, Sept 27 and Sept 8. The methodology is explained in earlier posts.

Since October 5th, the following shifts are evident:

  • Ohio (18EV), although still a swing state, has shifted to be more likely a Republican win than a Democrat win.
  • Wisconsin (!0EV) has shifted out of swing state status, in favor of the Democrats.
  • A total of 11 state projections for the Democrats have shifted (more) towards the Democrats. These are shown as white text on blue background. But only 5 of these are in swing states (where it matters).
  • A total of 2 state projections that are projecting Democrats to win have shifted towards the Republicans (Red text on blue background). Both of these are in swing state Florida (29EV).
  • A total of 2 state projections have moved from Republican-expected to toss-up status (hence showing a shift towards the Democrats). Shown as blue text on white background. These are in Iowa (6EV) and Texas (38EV).
  • A total of 2 state projections have moved from Democrat-expected to toss-up status (hence showing a shift towards the Republicans). Shown as red text on white background. These are in swing state Georgia (16EV) and non-swing state Minnesota (10EV).
  • A total of 2 state projections that are projecting Republicans to win have shifted towards the Democrats (Blue text on red background). Neither of these are in swing states.
  • A total of 9 state projections for the Republicans have shifted (more) towards the Republicans. These are shown as white text on red background.
  • Overall the meta-projection shows Joe Biden now confidently getting over the 270 threshold (with 279 confident EVs), wheras there were only 269 confident EVs before. However, the likely projected EVs for biden is now 350, whereas it was 368 before.
  • The model now in green shows four swing states where Biden has an advantage (five before), but still has to fight for: Arizona, Florida, North Carolina and Georgia. He doesn't need to win any of these to win the election if the confident states all fall in his favour, but winning any of these would reduce his risk.
  • Donald Trump, on the other hand, has the advantage in three swing states marked in yellow (Iowa, Texas and Ohio). He has to win all of these. He also has to win all the four swing states where Joe Biden has an advantage as above, and one of the states where the pollsters are confident in a Biden win (most likely one of Wisconsin, Pennsylvania or Michigan).

Net result: An overall shift in win probability towards Joe Biden, even though Biden's projected final EV count has shrunk by 18 EV.


One final point: Will the results be known or projectable on Election night? Most likely yes. There are a few states where late mail-in ballots will be accepted (postmarked up to election day, meaning they may not be counted for a week or two, delaying projections if counts are close and the number of such ballots are high). Some of these are in very confident Democrat states, so we shouldn't consider those. We only need to consider the states that are either swing states or at least somewhat competitive. These are the following:

  • Nevada: 6EV, Very Likely Democrat. If we subtract this from the 279 confident EVs for Biden, we still have 273EVs, and hence a clear win for Biden.
  • Virginia: 13 EV. Likely Democrat.
  • Minnesota: 10 EV. Likely Democrat.
  • North Carolina: 15EV Swing trending Democrat
  • Georgia: 15EV Swing  leaning Democrat
  • Iowa: 6EV Swing leaning Republican but that has moved towards the Democrats slightly
  • Texas: 38EV Swing leaning Republican
  • Ohio: 18EV Swing trending Republican

Given the margins, we have to consider the 29EV from Virginia, Minnesota and Nevada. If there are no projections from them due to late mail, that would bring the projectable number of EV wins for Biden down from 279 to 250. But Florida (29EV) could make the election a clear win for Biden on election night if it goes his way as could Arizona plus some other late-mail state that has a high-enough margin or low-enough number of delayed votes. Also, it is unlikely that all the 'late mail' states will be unprojectable, given the high number of people voting in advance.


Friday, October 16, 2020

Covid-19 country status update as of October 15, 2020

Using Worldometer data from October 16, here are is an update to Covid-19 statistics that are not readily available. This data (as in my previous posts) only focuses on countries with more than 10 million people, since small countries tend to be outliers and vary a lot from day to day. For example the Vatican had an outbreak among its Swiss Guards, which skewed its data for a few days.

I have highlighted a few countries consistently to allow comparisons among these metrics.

Countries doing worst right now in terms of new deaths per million:

Argentina9.3
Czechia5.4
Romania3.8
Mexico3.7
Brazil3.4
Iran3.0
Spain3.0
Colombia3.0
Belgium2.9
South Africa2.7
USA2.6
Jordan2.4
Poland2.4
Ecuador2.4
Bolivia2.2
UK2.0
Peru2.0
Russia2.0
Netherlands1.7
Ukraine1.7
Iraq1.6
Italy1.4
France1.3
Guatemala1.3
Greece1.2
Morocco1.2
Portugal1.1
Chile1.0
Canada0.9

Countries doing worst right now in terms of new cases per million:

Czechia907.2
Belgium712.7
France468.8
Netherlands454.4
Argentina377.3
UK278.9
Jordan240.3
Spain233.4
Poland214.1
Romania209.0
Portugal206.2
USA199.4
Italy145.7
Brazil138.5
Colombia133.7
Nepal128.0
Ukraine116.0
Russia94.2
Morocco89.6
Iraq88.6
Germany84.4
Peru84.2
Ecuador72.1
Canada62.0
Sweden58.9
Chile58.7
Iran54.8
Azerbaijan52.1
India43.7

Countries doing worst right now in terms of new cases as compared to their total cases (more recent, higher numbers in this wave):

Jordan0.074
Czechia0.065
Poland0.054
Belgium0.046
Netherlands0.038
France0.038
Angola0.035
Malaysia0.032
Myanmar0.032
Nepal0.031
UK0.028
Romania0.024
Italy0.023
Portugal0.023
Germany0.020
Morocco0.020
Greece0.019
Argentina0.018
Ukraine0.018
Chad0.016
Sri Lanka0.014
Kenya0.014
Mozambique0.014
Burkina Faso0.013
Indonesia0.013
Azerbaijan0.012
Canada0.012
Spain0.011
Russia0.010
Syria0.010
Iran0.009
Iraq0.009
Ecuador0.008
Ethiopia0.008
India0.008
USA0.008
Colombia0.007
Benin0.007
Guatemala0.007
Japan0.006
Philippines0.006
Guinea0.006
Sweden0.006
Brazil0.006
Venezuela0.005
Uzbekistan0.005
Turkey0.005
Mexico0.005
Mali0.005
Uganda0.005

Tuesday, October 6, 2020

US Presidential meta-tracker update as of October 5 - mostly consolidation, but one more state for Dems

 Here is the third update of my meta-tracker of US presidential poll trackers. For the method and previous posts see here (Sept 8th) and here (Sept 27).

Since my last post on Sept 27th there has clearly been a shift towards Joe Biden. The debate happened, and data from after that, and the President's Covid-19 diagosis, are starting to be reflected, although not completely.

In Republican and Republican-leaning states, there is consolidation towards trump (white on red below). There is also consolidation in Democrat and Democrat-leaning states (white on blue below). One toss-up state to move to leaning Democrat is Georgia. Two Democrat-side states and one toss-up state have moved slightly towards the Repoblicans (Nevada, Wisconsin and Ohio -- red text). But Joe Biden seems to have enough other swing states (green at left) to carry him, especially if polling shifts continue to move the way they are.





Sunday, September 27, 2020

US Presidential Poll Meta-Tracker update - Sept 27 - Some shifts Republican but higher Dem EV cutoff

This is an update on September 27th, 2020 to my US Presidential Election meta-tracker. Compare this to my earlier post on Sptember 8th, where you can also find more details about the method. It includes polls that straddle before and after the Supreme Court nomination became an issue, but before debates.

The news is mixed: Small shifts to the Republicans, but the threshold has shifted towards the Democrats.

The table below shows the states ranked from top to bottom from most likely Democrat wins for President (top) to Republican wins (bottom). Data is amalgamated from 6 current poll trackers, such as the Economist and Princeton University.The cells with the green and yellow backgrounds are the current swing states.

The green-background cells are the swing states that Democrats seem most likely to win. Ohio has been added to this list, compared to September 8th. Wisconsin and Michigan have dropped into clear Democrat category, and no longer appear to be swing states.

Joe Biden needs to win any one of Pennsylvania, Arizona, Florida, North Carolina or Ohio to get over the 270 threshold, whereas the Donald Trump would have to win them all. But Joe Biden still also has a fighting chance at four more states marked in yellow.

Despite this apparent slight shift in electoral vote chances towards the Democrats, there have been a considerable number of shifts in individual state predictions by the trackers towards the Republicans.

  • The text colour is white if there has been a shift towards the party given by the background colour (e.g. white on blue means becoming even more Democrat) and white on red or pink means becoming more Republican.
  • Blue on red (or blue on pink) means Republicans are favored, but less so than before.
  • Red on blue means the Democrats are favored, but less so than before.
  • Red on white means newly toss-up states in favor of the Republicans, whereas the Democrats had been favoured before. Two poll trackers have these, for Arizona and Florida.
  • Blue on white means newly toss--up states in favor of the Democrats. Four states have these, for Indiana, Georgia, Iowa and Ohio. 

Four states have shifted in different directions in different poll trackers: Georgia, Pennsylviania, New Hampshire and Missouri

Of the swing states, Arizona, Texas and Florida have shifted consistently to the Republicans (78 EVs), while Ohio and Iowa have shifted consistently to the Democrats (24 EV).

Overall the prediction currently would be Joe Biden 352 EV, vs, Donald Trump 186 EV. 

I am also showing information on the right about the mode of voting, obtained from CNN. Of the 5 swing states from which the Democrats must win one to win, three should have results on election day, or very soon thereafter, because ballots must be received by then (shown in green text). Three states (all favouring Democrats) will, however, have almost-entirely mail-in voting, where the ballots only have to be posted by election day. These have 32 EVs in total; the networks will probably be able to 'call' these states, but they could be a cause of controversy if the election is close.






Tuesday, September 8, 2020

Covid-19 most-affected and surging countries - Sept 7 2020

 I have made a variety of posts on the progression of Covid-19 over the last 6 months.

Here's today's update as of September 7th. All date is extracted from the Worldometer site.

Bottom line: Canada is doing quite well. Israel is having the biggest current problem.

In the tables, countries are coloured by continent. Only countries with 2 million or more inhabitants are included in the tables to avoid listing outliers (islands or very small countries that have outbreaks). I am particularly interested in how Canada is doing, along with the USA (our neighbour) and the UK (my birthplace), so I have listed these separately if they are not in the table.

The first table shows countries with the most recent surges, measured as new cases yesterday / total cases. Prominent in the list are a group of African countries, and a group of middle-eastern countries/territories (Jordan, Israel, Palestine) that border each other. Not shown in this table is the USA (rank 105, with 0.39), Canada (rank 135, 0.19) and the UK (Rank 61, 0.84)

Myanmar6.52
Hungary6.43
Zimbabwe6.32
Botswana5.83
Libya5.76
Congo5.38
Paraguay3.71
Uganda2.89
Jordan2.7
Jamaica2.55
Israel2.49
Mozambique2.48
Palestine2.43
Nepal2.07
Georgia2.02

The second table shows the number of new cases yesterday per million people, showing the intensity of the ongoing pandemic there. Some countries/territories, such as Israel and Palestine show up on the above table too. Not shown is Canada, which ranks 102 (6.5 new cases/million) and UK which ranks 49 (43.4).

Countries with three stars are also listed above (surging most recently) and in the third table (overall worst affected). Countries with two stars are also in the third table, and countries/territories with one star are also in the first table.

Israel362.2***
Argentina203.5**
Kuwait188.0**
Costa Rica163.2**
Libya157.5*
Palestine127.3*
Panama123.6**
Paraguay121.3*
Iraq106.8
Colombia104.5**
Chile92.1**
Qatar90.1
USA76.4**
France64.4
Moldova64.0**
Hungary59.7
Lebanon58.7
India54.3
Botswana52.5
Albania52.5
Czechia52.3
Spain52.2**
Dominican Republic52.0
Oman49.9
Ukraine49.8

The third table shows the overall number of cases per million people (many of which could have been earlier in the pandemic). This shows overall how hard the countries have been hit. Canada is 66th at 3495, and the UK is 49th at 5152).