US Presidential Race tightens a little, but Biden still predicted to eke out a win: Final meta-poll-tracker

 This is my final meta-analysis of 2020 US presidential poll trackers. For previous ones see here.

Since October 17th the Economist has shifted considerably towards a win by Biden, with 7 states showing shifts towards the Democrats and none towards the Republicans. This includes close states North Carolina, Iowa and Ohio (the latter two moving to Toss-up status).

CBC, on the other hand, has shifted 6 states a little towards the Republicans and 3 states a little toward the Democrats. The only close states with shifts, however, are all in the Republican direction: Florida and North Carolina (which become toss-ups, instead of likely Democrat) as well as Pennsylvania (which becomes likely Democrat instead of very likely).

Electoral-Vote.com has shifted Arizona towards the Republicans, from very likely Democrat to just likely Democrat and has adjusted the confidence level in three states that are on the Republican side of the chart.

Princeton has shifted Texas a little to the Democrats and adjusted two other Republican states a little.

Finally, Real Clear Politics has made two slight changes toward the Democrats in non-close states.

But the net result is that no state changes in its overall ranking on the spectrum from certain Democrat to certain Republican. If all the polls and poll trackers are doing a decent job, Biden will at least overtop the magic 270 Electoral College votes (EVs) by winning three states that Trump won in 2016: Nevada, Wisconsin and Pennsylvania. That would give him 279 EVs (or 280 with the Nevada second district), which I will call my prediction.

But looking more closely at the polls, there is a clear trend whereby Biden's margin has been dropping. This happened to Clinton too. I wouldn't be confident in any state where the polls show less than a 4 point lead for Biden. That means he might only get those 279 votes. And if he lost Pennsylvania, as is entirely possible due to the fracas over fracking, then he would need to win a state like Arizona (plus a single Nebraska district which is likely) or North Carolina.

So I also think Biden will win the popular vote nationally by 6%, which should help quell naysayers, although is below what the current polling average is predicting. I say this because of the desperation and passion of Trump supporters, and the fact that they are less likely to be concerned by the pandemic, and hence might come out to vote in higher numbers.

I think the results will only be known for sure a couple of weeks after election day.